中國三十強飼料企業(yè)當(dāng)前正處于如下四大困惑之中。一孔之見，姑妄言之。

Based on my personal opinion, currently, there are four important dilemmas which the top 30 feed companies in China face.

一、本土化還是國際化之惑

(Localization Internationalization)

以泰國正大集團為代表的外資企業(yè)在中國開疆拓土取得巨大成功；以希望集團為代表的本土企業(yè)在越南等國家攻城拔寨取得了卓 越成就。事實告訴我們，商業(yè)無國界。許多偉大企業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程證明，國門之內(nèi)無名企。

An important trend in recent years is the increased internationalization of global markets. Foreign enterprises, such as CP Group Thailand, have achieved great success by exploiting the Chinese market. Chinese feed enterprises, such as New Hope Group, have expanded overseas with the prospect of claiming many achievements in foreign countries like Vietnam. These facts signify the importance of the saying that “business knows no borders.” Throughout the course of development, to be successful, enterprises could pursue neither a closed-door nor isolationist policy.

中國強大的過程現(xiàn)實上也必然伴隨著資本、技術(shù)、市場的向外擴張，這刺激著中國飼料行業(yè)的領(lǐng)軍企業(yè)躍躍欲試于國際化的發(fā)展。截然對立的觀點則認為，中國是全世界有潛力的市場，本土企業(yè)國際化發(fā)展是舍近求遠、舍本逐末，況且中國飼料企業(yè)無論是股東還是管理團隊的素養(yǎng)都達不到國際化的要求，盲目國際化無異于飛蛾撲火、自取滅亡。西諺有云：“離家越遠，離失敗越近?！?/span>

The successful growth development of China is accompanied by the broad expansion of capital, technology, markets; these accomplishments greatly encourage Chinese feed enterprises to pursue internationalization. However, the opposing viewpoint insists on localization, based on the notion that China is the market with the highest growth potential in the world today. Proponents of this viewpoint believe there is no need to achieve internationalization simpy for the sake of internationalization; that is, there is no need to strive after something unattainable, meanwhile forgoing substantial opportunities immediately at hand. Moreover, the scale of Chinese feed enterprises the will of shareholders management teams may yet have reached the level required to successfully expand abroad. As is often the case, operating developing businesses far away the core, can lead to failure – as encapsulated by the old Western proverb, “the farther away hometown, the closer to failure.” 

此爭論曠日已久，難有結(jié)論。我的看法是中國飼料企業(yè)應(yīng)該首先立足國內(nèi)市場，取得優(yōu)勢地位后放眼周邊，尤其是越南、老撾、柬埔寨、緬甸、朝鮮、哈薩克斯坦等鄰國。對于印度、俄羅斯、韓國、日本等鄰國，市場雖大但進入難度亦大，不宜投資。

In weighing the pros cons of localization versus internationalization, it is difficult to conclude which course is preferable. my point of view, the primary strategy of Chinese feed enterprises should be to establish dominance in the domestic market, then move to neighboring, but less-developed countries such as Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, North Korea, Kazakhstan. Indeed, in spite of larger market sizes, it would be much harder to invest in neighboring but well-developed countries such as India, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Australia.

二、專一化還是多元化之惑

(Focus Diversification)

盡管全世界大多數(shù)企業(yè)都是靠“諾基亞模式”即專業(yè)化經(jīng)營，專注于唯 一選定的領(lǐng)域并取得成功；但也有如美國GE(通用電氣公司)者橫空出世，憑借多元化發(fā)展取得巨大成功。中國正處于由混沌初開向秩序井然的成熟社會過渡的時期，眼前活生生的例證是：東方希望集團靠飼料起家卻以電解鋁行業(yè)成為中國私營企業(yè)的翹楚；新希望企業(yè)千軍萬馬做飼料，而其最 大的收益卻來自不經(jīng)意間投資入股的銀行業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)。近年新希望依靠資本力量投資控股或入股多家農(nóng)牧企業(yè)，成為因多元化而成功的鮮明案例。

Even though many of the world’s successful enterprises, such as Nokia, have pursued a highly focused strategy in a specific sector industry, other large enterprises, such as GE, have attained even greater success by pursuing a highly-diversified strategy. Currently, China is in a transition point, moving a developing, volatile, informal market to a more mature market with rules, regulations, transparency. For instance,  East Hope Group initially was a feed business, but it soon grew into one of China’s major private aluminum enterprises. Additionally, in its early stages, New Hope Group invested in banking real estate, instead of focusing its resources on the feed business. Recently, New Hope Group has a robust capital base due to its investment holdings equity participation in several agriculture companies, which have helped the company to diversify thereby lower the amount of risk to which it is exposed. 

今天的中國社會，政商關(guān)系密切，因一業(yè)興旺而積累了足夠資金和龐大社會資源，從而更加有利于開展多元化的經(jīng)營。堅持專一化、抗拒多元化，最 終才能走上成功之路，是被全世界證明了的經(jīng)驗，但在中國卻并不見得靈驗。高度專業(yè)化企業(yè)構(gòu)成的群體強大而高 效，如：微軟、IBM、英特爾因高度分工、密切合作而令美國成為IT業(yè)霸主；而過度龐雜的巨頭企業(yè)，如日韓財團政商勾結(jié)雖使其崛起迅速，卻最 終阻礙行業(yè)進步甚至危害社會的公正。

Today, the relationship between government companies has largely been liberalized. The accumulation distribution of wealth, social benefits, resources the pursuit of diversification are based on the decisions strength of individual enterprises. The most successful approach might be found by examining cases regarding the development of specific businesses industries, but these examples may be applicable to China. Highly specialized companies such as Microsoft, IBM, Intel, which began in the U.S., have become global leaders in the IT industry. On the other hand, some conglomerates in Japan South Korea may have negatively impacted the overall development of the countries because many deals were made with the respective governments, often behind closed doors. 

多元化還是專一化關(guān)鍵取決于我們的目標是無限擴大自身的財富數(shù)量，還是愿意投身于我們喜歡的事業(yè)、貢獻于我們所生長的國家。我傾向于“有所為，有所不為”。

The problems created by focus diversification should be decided by each individual enterprise, based upon rational choices about maximizing wealth creation, maximizing economic impact, becoming a leader within a particular industry sector. I prefer to be an expert in a given field.  

三、專業(yè)化還是一體化之惑

(Specialization Integration)

專業(yè)化地把飼料做精、做細、做大、做強是我們的傳統(tǒng)，這一傳統(tǒng)首先在肉雞產(chǎn)業(yè)上遇到挑戰(zhàn)。全世界認同的趨勢是，今后很難有單一的商業(yè)化肉雞飼料生產(chǎn)者， 而必須實行從育種到孵化、飼料供應(yīng)到防疫滅病、養(yǎng)殖到屠宰再到肉品加工的產(chǎn)業(yè)一體化經(jīng)營。肉雞業(yè)的這一趨勢是否也將推行到豬、蛋雞以及反芻動物生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域呢?美洲的一體化經(jīng)營趨勢十分明顯，以史密斯菲爾德公司為代表的“養(yǎng)殖托拉斯式”的企業(yè)，規(guī)模巨大并完全左右了市場價格，使得畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)更有計劃性，但有壟斷之虞。近年，史密斯菲爾德公司業(yè)績出現(xiàn)巨額虧損，說明該模式運行也并非完善。

The traditional manner of the feed industry is to specialize in feed production to increase complexity, enhance technology, improve quality. This traditional manner has encountered challenges of the broiler industry, as exemplified by the comments, “mere broiler feed producer.” The trend is toward integrated production, by assembling the different branches of the process: breeding, hatching, feed supply, epidemic prevention control, feeding, slaughtering, meat processing. This trend will likely also affect pork, layer ruminant industries. The trend has been the case in America; for example, Smithfield Foods is representative of Trus Model. Large scale production operations obviously affect the market price should lead to economies of scale. However, in recent years, Smithfield Foods presented signficant losses in its annual financial report. This data suggests imperfection with the Trus Model. 

如果中國的未來趨勢走向一體化，我們就必須主動轉(zhuǎn)變——或自身形成完全產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈、或聯(lián)合其他相關(guān)企業(yè)完成一體化經(jīng)營，盡管產(chǎn)業(yè)化經(jīng)營風(fēng)險巨大，但我們不得不面對這個現(xiàn)實挑戰(zhàn)。與北美相比，歐洲的專業(yè)化色彩很濃。大量的家庭農(nóng)場適度規(guī)模地經(jīng)營，政府并不鼓勵擴大養(yǎng)殖規(guī)模，相反實行配額限制，專業(yè)的飼料企業(yè)、專業(yè)的屠宰加工企業(yè)與農(nóng)場之間簽訂合約、各司其職，政府通過政策直接干預(yù)畜牧業(yè)生產(chǎn)過程，把周期性的風(fēng)險分化于不同生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)和大量的農(nóng)場，降低了生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險，縮短了危機時間。

In fact, this trend toward integration can be particulary challenging, especially if the industry as a whole is consolidating. The challanges lies in converting innovation execution expertise in a highly-specialized domain, into a broader expertise in integrating other companies into a coherent structure, operating each component successfully synergistically. In a sense, compared with North American companies, European ones tend to be even more specialized. Many family farms are under the restriction of quota allocations limited scales of operation, formal contracts with specialized feed companies specialized slaughterhouses. To protect the production soundness of the market, the government has implemented direct control of the process of production. Government does this through the process known as risk-sharing: it controls each branch of production a large amount of farms to have risk characteristics that people are comfortable with, thereby reducing crises. 

我仍然認為歐洲的模式更適合中國國情，然而這種模式在歐洲能夠發(fā)揮功效，第 一有賴于一個專業(yè)化的畜牧業(yè)政府管理部門，既能未雨綢繆地防范又能力挽狂瀾地制止；第 二有賴于一個高度誠信的商業(yè)文化，各生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)真 正讓契約有效執(zhí)行。

I still consider the model practiced in the EU to be preferable. The EU model is accomplished by maintaining crucial controls over operation of the specializated livestock chain. In addition, well-functioning commercial markets the principle of good faith are essential to a healthy economy.

四、私人化還是公眾化之惑

(Private Public)

公司通過上市在資本市場籌集資金，成為近年來中國企業(yè)的流行做法。飼料行業(yè)已有多家捷足先登者。在中國不可思議的高市盈率的資本市場環(huán)境下，這些企業(yè)一夜暴富，顯著地拉開了與同行之間的資本實力差距。股價虛高產(chǎn)生的巨大誘惑使得“上市”成了比追求經(jīng)營質(zhì)量的提高更為有效的創(chuàng)富手段，有些企業(yè)甚至不惜為此弄虛作假。

A firm may raise funds in financial markets by issuing equity, such as common stock shares, which represent claims on the net income (income after expenses taxes) assets of a business. China has had active capital markets for many years, therefore there are many publicly-listed feed companies. Companies listed in China have tended to have extraordinarily high P/E ratios, creating sudden wealth large gaps between listed unlisted companies. It is possible that some weaker firms may actually be most eager to sell securities to unwary investors, the resulting adverse selection problem may keep stock prices in bubble territory. Furthermore, because of the market structure lack of shareholder rights today, once an investor has bought a security, thereby providing money to a firm, the recipient firm may be incentivited engage in riskier activities to commit outright fraud. 

我們必須明白，企業(yè)上市或曰公眾化只是發(fā)展企業(yè)的一種手段，絕非經(jīng)營企業(yè)的目的；企業(yè)上市公眾化也不是企業(yè)發(fā)展的唯 一途徑，對于很多企業(yè)而言并不是最 好的手段。德國寶馬公司、美國嘉吉公司都是世界頂 尖的大企業(yè)，他們卻始終保持著私人企業(yè)的不壞金身。企業(yè)上市后將面臨更嚴格的公眾監(jiān)督和機構(gòu)監(jiān)管， 同時也會顯著提高企業(yè)的運營成本。而為了上市虛報業(yè)績、編造項目可能會使這些企業(yè)最 終失去競爭力。在現(xiàn)實中國資本市場的虛高股價之下，保持理性異乎尋常的艱難，但我們必須實事求是。

But Chinese firms shareholders should be clear about the following concept: Going public is just an instrument of the company to finance future development, but it is the final purpose of operations. In contrast, both BMW Cargill are private holding companies well-known in the world for many generations. There are stringent reporting requirements for public companies. Their bookkeeping must follow certain strict principles, their books are subject to periodic inspection, they must make certain information available to the public. These necessary duties increase the cost of operations. Unfortunately, in order to go public, many firms in China create false financial statements fabricate profit loss accounts; but such firms will only end in bankruptcy, to the detriment of shareholders, customers, employees, society. With capital markets supporting such overvalued stock prices, it is unlikely that rational decision-making will be achieved incentivized in the near-term. But, it is necessary to be honor pragmatist.

上述困惑之外以三聚氰胺為代表的食品安全事件，使飼料行業(yè)首當(dāng)其沖成為眾矢之的，監(jiān)管力度不斷加大是政府方面矯枉過正的表現(xiàn)，更多行業(yè)管理的苛刻新規(guī)使得出現(xiàn)問題時政府可以不承擔(dān)任何責(zé)任，而由企業(yè)完全承擔(dān)一切后果，這類似于商業(yè)活動中的霸王條款，扼殺了企業(yè)的活力，降低了企業(yè)的競爭力，企業(yè)顯然不堪重負。此外隨著人類活動的增多，地球環(huán)境發(fā)生劇烈變化，生態(tài)系統(tǒng)趨于崩潰，動物疫病愈演愈烈，加之人們對衛(wèi)生與安全的苛刻要求和對疫病的恐慌心理，使飼料及畜牧業(yè)缺乏穩(wěn)定的生存基礎(chǔ)，這個關(guān)系國計民生的行業(yè)已經(jīng)成為一個高危行業(yè)。

In addition to the challenges mentioned above, a major concern within the industry is the substandard deteriorating FSQS (food safety quality service). Many problems in the food industry have been discovered, such as melamine, which have caused the feed industry to be held at fault by the public. Such debacles, have resulted in increased supervision regulation of the industry restrictions imposed on many companies. Going forward, regulation red tape continue to worsen impose greater burdens on companies. The livestock industry is now under huge pressure, strangled companies reduced . Moreover, the world is underoing a dramatic increase in human activity, severe damage to the environment, ecological disasters, the likelihood of animal-derived epidemics. Considering all of the above components, the feed livestock industries are under negative status have recently become even higher-risk businesses.

于2009年底